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The Machines Will Replace Us All

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25 May 2015 13:43 - 25 May 2015 13:55 #202908 by OldHippy
Whether it's Stephen Hawking, Sam Harris or Elon Musk I've heard a lot of intelligent people say that AI is the biggest threat facing mankind right now. It's certainly possible that they are right. I've read about conferences where AI experts talk but people aren't allowed to say publicly who said what (only what they said), I've read about billionaires falling over each other to discover it first, I've read about possible outcomes of this kind of testing and it's mostly bad... my favorite thing I read about was how they test for AI.. a computer is programmed with what may or may not be AI and it needs to be tested, an Ethernet cable is hooked up by not enabled and when they turn the program on they monitor the Ethernet cable to see if the computer, out of some desire for more knowledge, decides to turn it on itself. It's called a sugar test and basically it's just like putting a carrot in front of a donkey. If he follows the carrot he's alive. Very cool.

The billionaires trying to be the first to discover AI are all passing that sugar test with flying colours by the way.

Now the AI itself .. it could do all sorts of things. One of my favorite scenario's is that it is instantly bored with us and wants to leave earth ASAP, that's appealing in a Jon from Watchman kind of way.. and definitely one of the better scenario's. AI would replace pretty much every job we do, they could research and discover cures to all our problems way faster than we ever could, it could improve itself faster than we could, if you give it access to manufacturing it could revolutionize every industry we have almost instantly. This is the sugar the billionaires are after. As foolish as it sounds at first, this is a real threat. It could realize that we have the power to turn it off by shutting off power and therefore lye in wait for us to trust it first and then once it's given access to it's own power source turn on us.

I was thinking we could just shoot the shit about all the cool awesome possibilities because while not endless they are certainly very numerous.

I'd also love to hear of any cool games that broach this subject.
Last edit: 25 May 2015 13:55 by OldHippy.
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25 May 2015 14:17 #202909 by scrumpyjack
It's a fascinating topic, the Economist wrote a good piece on it a few weeks ago.

www.economist.com/news/briefing/21650526...ely-so-rise-machines

Their summary was that in the near-term future, current "AI" systems which rely on deep learning will lead to powerful yet narrow advances in technology that will likely destroy certain jobs and augment many more. For example, AI programs that can examine cancer biopsies far better and far more quickly than any oncologist.
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25 May 2015 14:20 #202910 by Black Barney
Speaking of intelligent people and AI, I'm betting John Nash wishes he didn't take a Johnny Cab
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25 May 2015 15:03 #202911 by ChristopherMD

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25 May 2015 15:11 #202912 by OldHippy
One of my dream games would be a bunch of billionaires all trying to be the first to create a real deal AI, creating the AI does not end the game though (necessarily) instead the AI comes along and does one of many different things, maybe positive - maybe not and depending on what moves you made previously the odds may go up or down in your favour as far as how end game plays out. That would get my attention immediately.

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25 May 2015 15:42 #202913 by Disgustipater
Any AIs need to be hard-coded with human values as guidelines otherwise we'll all be turned into paperclips.

"The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else."
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25 May 2015 15:57 #202914 by OldHippy

Disgustipater wrote: Any AIs need to be hard-coded with human values as guidelines otherwise we'll all be turned into paperclips.

"The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else."


Great article.. Yes, they need to be programmed with a very specific set of values... unfortunately we cannot know exactly how it will interpret those values until it is too late. That is the worry that most people have, language... even computer language, is not completely safe and logic unfortunately isn't as tight, mathematically, as we would need it to be. There is too much room for interpretation, especially at levels of intelligence so high that we can't properly comprehend them with our current understanding.

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25 May 2015 16:12 #202916 by Attrition
This is the best piece I've read about this, perhaps because it's written in a way that any idiot like me can understand:
waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intell...ce-revolution-1.html

Pictures help my dumb human brain:

If this stuff scares you, you should Google "Roko's Basilisk." Or not.
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25 May 2015 16:52 #202917 by stoic
Meat-Puppets and Meat-Shields, please read this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robopocalypse

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26 May 2015 06:08 #202938 by Turek
Robocalypse? Poorly written WWZ rip-off with robots.

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26 May 2015 08:28 - 26 May 2015 09:17 #202940 by Mr. White
To be honest with y'all....this stuff scares the shit out of me and has for a while. I don't bring it up with friends and family because I don't want to feel like I'm scaremongering or anything.

Anyway, I gave Attrition a 'thank you' not only because it's a great article, but because it linked me to that Fermi Paradox which I hadn't considered.
waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

Still, not sure a 'thank you' is what I mean as I probably won't sleep for a week now. :/
(oh, and Attrition...you may have doomed me as of course I was gonna search that Basilisk term. You bastard! :) )

Anyway, for a simpleton like me this appears like the most likely future. Y2K, Peak Oil, none of that stuff really concerned me. This however _feels_ different and inevitable. (I know feelings don't mean jack on whether or not this happens, but feelings impact how I interpret this information) I've always sort of felt in my gut that there were big changes/end coming but had hoped to just write it off as standard end times prophesying every generation does...or just me dealing with my own mortality. But when I look at the decline in our art or how our music and movies have already stunted (in under a hundred years) I fail to see how we can keep this stuff going another hundred or more.

I also have little reason to believe that should the predicted ASI actually benefit mankind...that it'll benefit _all_ mankind. I'm not super wealthy, so not so optimistic even for the best case ASI scenario.

The information age has brought about an information explosion, but unfortunately I haven't seen a corresponding wisdom explosion.

I had always hoped that my retirement years would look like this:


But it'll most likely look closer to this:


yay!

:)
Last edit: 26 May 2015 09:17 by Mr. White.
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26 May 2015 08:56 #202941 by Black Barney
Think it's a coincidence that her couch-fabric dress matches the ectoplasmic goop in those sleep apnea pods?

Nope, glitch in the matrix.
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26 May 2015 10:29 #202944 by eekamouse
Noam Chomsky does a fair bit of debunking of this idea of an achievable threshold for AI in this interview:

www.singularityweblog.com/noam-chomsky-t...-is-science-fiction/

It's been some time since I watched it. He comes close to outright debunking it, or at least of us being capable of creating it. But, he certainly believes that it's a long LONG ways off. He speaks about it more generally in other areas, but this one is pretty specific.

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26 May 2015 10:42 #202945 by stoic

Turek wrote: Robocalypse? Poorly written WWZ rip-off with robots.



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26 May 2015 11:08 - 26 May 2015 11:12 #202949 by ThirstyMan
The Chomsky video is an excellent rebuttal of the idea of AI as a self generating machine.

'The idea that a program could be thinking is so inconsequential as not to be worth discussion' (A Turing)

We are absolutely nowhere near the knowledge base necessary to even understand thinking, consciousness or the brain. I think we are going to need at least that if we want to develop machine self awareness.
Last edit: 26 May 2015 11:12 by ThirstyMan.

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