Coronavirus

For my gaming life COVID-19 was the best thing that could have happened. I'm posted in Guangzhou, but took the first opportunity to evacuate when it was given. I didn't see much of a reason to stick around since the city was on effective lockdown. Two weeks of nothing to do at all. No one in the mood to do anything, and I ran through all the gaming I could handle with my kids. Every day just home to work, putting in 10 hour days to prep everyone for departure, then back home. So I'm back in the DC area doing various gaming with two different groups. During the day I get to help my agency prep for the inevitable telework crush.

Personally I'm not worried about COVID at all. It doesn't kill anyone under 50 without severe health conditions. 60-70 with poor health, 70+ and you have to worry. I am worried about my in-laws, they could be impacted. What actually scares me is the economic upheaval it is causing. I still read the reports from my Consulate's reporting section. This last week there were rent strikes in three Guangdong province cities. People couldn't earn money so they couldn't make rent. Being China they naturally beat the protestors senseless and scrubbed all mention from the media. My fear is that since the only approved way of showing angst is to be anti-West, China might head that direction openly.

Make no mistake, a recession is a coming.

At 3:30 AM, I woke up to an unsettling silence. I live one block away from a major thoroughfare and a few blocks from a highway, so there is usually at least a steady but distant sound of vehicles in motion. Not last night. Traffic was also significantly lighter than normal during my morning commute. Maybe 1/3 less traffic. Regardless of the actual threat of coronavirus, the economic impact is already visible. Fear is causing people to avoid flying, going to sporting events or other big public gatherings, and restaurants seem less busy. Two of the three owners of the company that I work for are in their 60s, and they have cut back significantly on their heavy travel schedule. They also scaled back aggressive plans for business growth this year.

Someone very close to me has been getting chemo for breast cancer, and the chemo weakens her immune system. She is still in her 30s, so it's very likely that she will survive breast cancer, but now she's at greater risk of catching coronavirus. The county that we live in got its first reported case of coronavirus on Monday, and the county that I work reported a first case yesterday.

It's true that most people aren't going to die from coronavirus. But Americans face serious economic consequences. 25% of American workers don't get paid sick days from their employer, so they will either keep working while sick or stay home and lose money. 15% of people who catch coronavirus end up needing hospitalization, and a 2-week stay in a hospital is hideously expensive in the United States. Like, more than $100,000. Sure, many people have insurance, but they also have deductibles and co-pays to cover. And roughly 1 out of 5 Americans do not have health insurance. The leading cause of bankruptcy in the U.S. is already medical bills, and that was well before coronavirus.

You can see the much lighter traffic at certain times of the day around here, as well.

Most of the major universities in Michigan have suspended classes, including Michigan State (until April 20th, at least) and asked their students to head home. So, some people will be flying...? Yeah. It's all a bit chaotic. The only thing to do is try to continue with life, but take precautions (i.e. definitely wipe down shopping cart handles at the grocery store or bring your own bags to carry things, etc.) The key thing will just be trying to minimize the spread of the disease until warmer temperatures take hold and it, like most influenza-type viruses, will die off in those warmer temperatures. That's no guarantee, but it's at least something to work toward.

I think the warmer temperatures help more in terms of people spending more time outside instead of indoors in close quarters with other people. However, some of the countries with coronavirus are in the southern hemisphere, where autumn is starting soon. Once coronovirus gets a serious toehold in Africa, we're going to see some serious bodycounts.

One of the more bizarre outcomes of this is the number of lives saved by the massive economic slowdown in China. Air pollution from factories and industry is orders of magnitude lower, and has probably extended the lives of 10s of thousands of people. kottke.org/20/03/covid-19-reduced-air-pollution

I calculate that having 2 months of 10ug/m3 reductions in PM2.5 likely has saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in China. Using even more conservative estimates of 10% reduction in mortality per 10ug change, I estimate 1400 under-5 lives saved and 51700 over-70 lives saved. Even under these more conservative assumptions, the lives saved due to the pollution reductions are roughly 20x the number of lives that have been directly lost to the virus.

It's not to say that pandemics are good. It's to say that the health costs of business-as-usual are grotesque.

mtagge wrote: Personally I'm not worried about COVID at all. It doesn't kill anyone under 50 without severe health conditions. 60-70 with poor health, 70+ and you have to worry. I am worried about my in-laws, they could be impacted.

Not true, the 34 year old Dr in Wuhan was one of the first deaths, just read an article about the conditions for health staff in Italian hospitals (they're being slammed) and even in proper protective gear the nurses a shit scared of catching it and possibly dying and are begging Italians to stay at home. Plus you and other 'bullet-proof feeling' people behaving normally is just going to help spread it further.

I think the govt and media announcements emphasising people who die as having underlying health issues are not making people to be cautious enough - and I can't believe our country (UK) still hasn't announced plans to start shutting the country down, yet you guys in the States are getting ready to shut down schools and universities.

Recession or major downturn is quite expected but perhaps it is worth it to slow it down quickly - should everyone, or as many as possible, stay at home as long as they can for the next two weeks ?

drewcula wrote: Adepticon is still scheduled for the end of March. IDK what to think.

I was just looking at that today. I was planning to go to Adepticon on Saturday, and I have tickets to two different miniature painting classes. I've never been there before (despite living 20 minutes away), and I was really looking forward to it. But now ... given the big-scale events that are being cancelled left and right (E3, SXWS, Coachella), it seems insane to go.

Last Wednesday, I half-jokingly said to my weekly V:tes group that maybe we should stop meeting at the FFG Event Center for a while if the coronavirus gets to Minnesota. Half laughed it off, and the others didn't. Starting tonight, the group is avoiding the Event Center and meeting at a player's house.

A guy from my group just traveled through India and Dubai, so I'm holding off for a couple of weeks. Won't do me no harm.

I'm not going to have any game nights for a while either, which is not a bad thing anyway since I've got the following to keep me busy:

- Phantom Division work
- "Unannounced Game" work
- Doom Eternal and Animal Crossing are imminent

ubarose wrote: Brandeis just announced that it is closing down the campus. We have to make arrangements to get the Spawn moved out. It's her senior year. She is heartbroken.

Damn. I had a feeling that was coming given the precedent Harvard set the other day.

The Friday night game meetup I go to is cancelled until further notice. Not sure if we're doing DnD Sunday or not but I'm guessing we'll do discord. I'm thinking in person gaming is not the move atm. Going to a game con seems like a crazy thing to do.

Ah_Pook wrote: The Friday night game meetup I go to is cancelled until further notice. Not sure if we're doing DnD Sunday or not but I'm guessing we'll do discord. I'm thinking in person gaming is not the move atm. Going to a game con seems like a crazy thing to do.

I think that small gatherings are still low-risk right now, but that could change within a couple of weeks. Going to a game convention does seem pretty high risk, though, judging by the dense crowds and poor hygiene that I have observed at GenCon over the years.